Virtual Riot wrote:Eventually you will be able to sell your officer weapons on the free market to other Dust514 players.
But how does one know how to make the most out of it? Do you sell right away when the market opens in an attempt to catch the wave? Or do you ride it out and set your sights on calmer water?
To do this we need raw data. We all know that a market is controlled by supply and demand. Realistically its a bit more complicated than that. We need a few key bits of data to make an accurate prediction.
1. What is the cost to produce an officer weapon?
You might be temped to say that there is no cost as you receive officer gear randomly for free in public matches. In reality this is not true. The cost to produce an officer weapon would be the time it took you to obtain it. Personally I would measure the time in # of matches, and that could be the "cost" to produce an officer weapon. Since I assume that all officer gear has an equal chance of dropping, I'm just going to group them all together with the same cost.
Tl;dr, How long does it take to produce an officer weapon on average?
Now this is where the data comes in. I've been playing for roughly a year. (started playing a bit before chromosome released)
I have only ever lost 1 officer weapon and that was a gastuns forge gun. By looking at my total accumulated officer weapons over the course of one year, and giving myself an average of 4 matches a day, we can come up with a cost.
16 Balac's
10 Krin's
30 Thale's
3 PCP-30's
9 Gastun's Forge Gun ( 8 + 1 that I lost)
16 Gastun's HMG
That gives us a total of 84 Officer weapon drops over the course of 1460 matches. That means that the chance to get an officer weapon is probably around the 5% mark. (5.7% for me). Or, about 1 officer weapon every 20 matches (17 for me).
Tl;dr It costs on average about 20 matches to obtain an officers weapon
2. Obtaining the real ISK cost to produce
Now, the actual cost of your match in terms of isk can vary wildly from player to player. Obviously the most cost-effective way to farm officer gear would be to run free suits in the shortest game mode (ambush). So how do you determine a cost other than the arbitrary "20 matches"?
To do this accurately, we really would need the value of the average length of a match in Dust514, and the average payout of said match. This could be equated into what we mercenaries get paid per hour on average for our jobs. Then we could simply multiply the isk made per match by 20 and you would end up with the price of an officer weapon in terms of isk.
Just for the sake of an example and my own guessing, I would say that the average length of a match in Dust514 (Average of all game modes) is probably around the 15 minute mark. And the average payout of said match is probably around the 200,000 ISK mark. If you have a differing opinion please post below and we can form a more accurate model.
So it takes 300 minutes or 5 hours to get an officer drop
And by the time you've played those 5 hours you will have made 4 million isk. (Think of the contract giver as the employer, the match itself is the work, and the officer weapon as the end product)
Thats about 800,000 ISK an hour we get paid, just a little fun bit.
Tl;dr The production cost of an officer weapon in terms of ISK is 4 million